Little over two months ago the NFL made yet another historic rule change to counter the mounting pressure to reduce head injuries. The new rule, as voted on by team owners will move the touchback spot after a kickoff forward five yards from the 20 to the 25 yard line. It is largely unclear what the effect of the new rule will be, which explains why the owners have also opted to experiment with the change for the upcoming 2016-2017 season, then reevaluate after the season.
The obvious purpose of such a dramatic change from the NFL is to limit head injuries such as concussions, which have experienced a drastic spike in attention from the public. A staggering 13% of concussions in the NFL last season occurred during kickoffs. By moving the touchback ball spot up five yards, the NFL seems to be offering a disincentive to return kicks. When looking at every kickoff return from the 2015-2016 NFL regular season, we can identify trends of current kickoff plays, and analyze what will happen in the upcoming season.
Last season, kickoffs that were not previously affected by penalties were booted from the kicking teams 35 yard line. A kick of 15 yards would land the ball at the 50, a kick of 40 yards would end up at the receiving teams 25 yard line, and a kick of 65 yards or greater, if untouched by the receiving team, would fall in the end zone and yield a touchback. When looking at the 2724 kickoffs that occurred during the 2015-2016 season, we find that the mean kickoff is 64.92 yards.
Of course, the kick returning team has an opportunity to get better field position by running the ball up the gridiron. When looking at the same 2724 kicks, the average return was 24.75 yards. Not bad right? If each kickoff begins at the 35 yard line and is kicked about 65 yards down the field, then is returned for about 25 yards by the returner, that would put the returning teams offense on their own 25 yard line. This oversimplified average is 5 yards better ball placement for the returner than if the kickoff resulted in a touchback. However we didn’t account for an important aspect of any decent kick returner; the decision to return the ball out of the end zone or not. Of the 2724 kickoffs during last years regular season, the opposing team returned only 40%. It’s safe to assume that many of these kicks flew out of the end zone, but a good amount of these kicks were caught by returners in the end zone who decided that their chances of running it past the 20 yard line were slim. Therefore we can conclude that last year’s kick returners were largely risk adverse in only fielding 40% of kickoffs, but were successful with the ones they did return, averaging about 25 yards.
In a real game, kick return yards and kickoff yards are important, most important variable is ball placement; that is 35 (the spot in which the ball is kicked) plus kickoff yards minus kick return yards, with a result of 0 indicating a touchdown by the returning team and anything greater than or equal to 100 being a touchback. By averaging this calculation over every regular season kick in last years season we find the mean ball spot to be the 21.7 yard line. From a viewer’s perception, this sounds perfectly reasonable. The incentive is still there for the kicker to boot the ball out of the end zone (no easy feat, pun intended) and the incentive is still there for the kick-returner to return the ball, as the average ball spot is greater than the touchback ball spot.
The graph below demonstrates how there is a loose relationship between an increase in kickoff distance and worse field position for the receiving team.
Now we can consider the new 25 yard line rule through the eyes of Jarvis Landry, one of the leagues premier kick returners playing for the Miami dolphins. Landry was impressive last season averaging a ball spot of the 23.5 yard line. This average ball spot is 3.5 yards ahead of the current touchback spot makes Landry both a good judge of when to run the ball back and a fantastic athlete in the area of kick returning. However next season when touchbacks will be taken at the 25 yard line, Landry will be much more likely to let balls roll through the back of the end zone. Why? His average ball spot is behind the new touchback spot. Why would he return a ball that statistically will give his team better field position if he lets go by him instead? One answer could be inflated confidence. Another might be in an attempt to keep his position relevant. Regardless of his personal incentives to return the ball, Landry is fighting against the odds on every kick return to pass the 25 yard line.
What does this mean for the future? I would predict that at the beginning of the season we will see far fewer returns and far more touchbacks. Then I suspect kickers will focus on “finessing” the ball right outside of the end zone forcing the returner to attempt a return. I think we can all agree that the NFL owners are admirable for trying to limit concussions on the field, but in this case, it is at the expense of altering one of the most exciting areas of the game.